This book's organization : read me first! -- Introduction : models we believe in -- What is this stuff called probability? -- Bayes' rule -- Inferring a binomial proportion via exact mathematical ...

Bayesian inference is a statistical method of inductive reasoning based on the reassessment of competing hypotheses in the presence of new evidence. Conceptually similar to the scientific method ...

Adam Hayes, Ph.D., CFA, is a financial writer with 15+ years Wall Street experience as a derivatives trader. Besides his extensive derivative trading expertise, Adam is an expert in economics and ...